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Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Market Commentary - June 21, 2011 posted @ 10:19PM/ET
Tuesday the DJIA rallied 109 points adding to its four day winning streak. Ninety-two percent of the trading volume on the NASDAQ was on the upside; a good sign. The NASDAQ also flashed a follow-through day (FTD). Some are questioning the follow-through day’s validity because Monday’s below average volume made for an easy comparison.
IBD reported that follow-through days in June have had a poor record of success. According to IBD, in the past 10 years, June has delivered four follow-through days — 2001, 2006 and two in 2010. Every one of them failed. On May 31, the NASDAQ Composite flashed a follow-through day, but that too failed. If this rally is going to fail, it will likely do so within a week or two.
Tuesday’s market action was indeed encouraging; our watch list expanded and we are seeing some decent set-ups run up the right side. Our risk model improved but not enough to trigger an outright buy signal yet. We continue to advise a defensive posture. If you decide to trade this market, keep positions small and stops tight until we get confirmation that the market has indeed bottomed and stocks are poised to rise in earnest.
Keep in mind, circumstances could change very quickly. Remain vigilant and ready to move into the market should we get indications that the market has bottomed. The fundamental picture could improve depending on statements by the Fed Wednesday. Bullish sentiment has cooled off a bit while the NASDAQ Composite corrected 10%. If the picture continues to improve we will put on some positions to test the waters.
Mark Minervini
IBD reported that follow-through days in June have had a poor record of success. According to IBD, in the past 10 years, June has delivered four follow-through days — 2001, 2006 and two in 2010. Every one of them failed. On May 31, the NASDAQ Composite flashed a follow-through day, but that too failed. If this rally is going to fail, it will likely do so within a week or two.
Tuesday’s market action was indeed encouraging; our watch list expanded and we are seeing some decent set-ups run up the right side. Our risk model improved but not enough to trigger an outright buy signal yet. We continue to advise a defensive posture. If you decide to trade this market, keep positions small and stops tight until we get confirmation that the market has indeed bottomed and stocks are poised to rise in earnest.
Keep in mind, circumstances could change very quickly. Remain vigilant and ready to move into the market should we get indications that the market has bottomed. The fundamental picture could improve depending on statements by the Fed Wednesday. Bullish sentiment has cooled off a bit while the NASDAQ Composite corrected 10%. If the picture continues to improve we will put on some positions to test the waters.
Mark Minervini
Sunday, July 11, 2010
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